New Senate Predictions Indicate Further Challenges For The Democrats In 2026

The Democratic Party faces a challenging landscape in the lead-up to the 2026 Senate elections, with initial projections from the Cook Political Report suggesting that Republicans have a favorable position to maintain and possibly expand their control. Currently, with a 53-seat majority following their success bolstered by President Donald Trump's influence in the 2024 elections, Republicans now control both Congress and the White House.

Out of the 35 seats up for grabs in 2026, two Democratic seats are considered vulnerable to Republican gains. The Cook Political Report categorizes the contest for Sen. John Ossoff's seat in Georgia as a "toss-up," reflecting the competitive nature of Georgia politics. Similarly, Michigan's open Senate seat, left by retiring Sen. Gary Peters, is also seen as a "toss-up."

Among the 12 Democratic seats in contention, only Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's seat in New Hampshire is rated "lean D," with Sen. Tina Smith's seat in Minnesota as "likely D," while the others are considered safe for Democrats. On the Republican side, the races for Sens. Susan Collins in Maine and Thom Tillis in North Carolina are rated "lean R," and Sen. Jon Husted's seat in Ohio is "likely R."

For Democrats to reclaim Senate control, they would need to secure victories in races currently leaning Republican and achieve an upset in at least one of the solidly Republican seats.

Georgia and Michigan are anticipated to be battleground states in 2026. Ossoff, who secured his seat in a 2020 runoff, might encounter strong opposition from notable Republicans like Gov. Brian Kemp or Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, although no official announcements have been made yet. In Michigan, Pete Buttigieg has been mentioned as a possible contender for Peters' seat, while Republican Aric Nesbitt has already declared his candidacy. Independent Mike Duggan, the former mayor of Detroit, has also entered the race. Other potential Republican candidates include Rep. John James, former Rep. Mike Rogers, and media personality Tudor Dixon.

Another race to keep an eye on is in Florida, where Attorney General Ashley Moody, appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis, aims to retain the seat previously held by Marco Rubio, which is rated "solid R" by the Cook Political Report.